Oscar Predictions for 2024: Who Will Win and Who Should Win
Predicting the Oscar winners has been a thing I do for some years now, and this will be my fourth time. There were years when I would garner a batting average of over 65 percent and then see it crash to below 50 percent the next year. So what? It’s fun and good to be early, laying my cards on the table and creating my ‘Will Win, Should Win’ tables. The “Should Win” is my personal choice/favorite.
The nominations announced last week had the usual mix of surprises, snubs, and glaring omissions. The more passionate reactions were exciting to follow – like that of Ryan Gosling, who secured his nomination for Best Supporting Actor in Barbie but minced no words in decrying how Barbie could be a Best Film nominee. Yet, no Greta Gerwig nomination for Best Director or Margot Robbie being included for Best Actress.
I can only say to Ryan, take comfort that he wasn’t in the film May December, which got the coldest of cold shoulders – garnering a single nomination for Original Screenplay.
So here goes, and be aware that while I don’t necessarily pick winners in every category, I don’t miss out on the major ones. For the full listing of nominations, do go elsewhere; this is my ‘Will Win, Should Win’ take on the Oscars 2024 – which happens on March 10.
Best Picture:
Will Win – Oppenheimer
Should Win – Poor Things is my favorite film of the year, and thank you, QCinema, for screening it.
Best Actor:
Will Win – Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers
Should Win – Leonardo DiCaprio for Killers of the Flower Moon, and he’s not even nominated. I loved how he went against type and succeeded with his character’s arc. I will applaud Giamatti if he gets this, as well-deserved for Holdovers and for his career in acting.
Best Actress:
Will Win – Emma Stone in Poor Things
Should Win – Emma Stone. This one has so many hidden depths, a satisfying arc, and character development of a different order. And she’s convincing throughout.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win – Robert Downey, Jr. for Oppenheimer
Should Win – Ryan Gosling in Barbie. Downey is good, but it’s one note; while Gosling has more shade and nuance in his Ken.
Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win – Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers
Should Win – Randolph, or American Ferrera in Barbie
Best Director:
Will Win – Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
Should Win – Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things, kudos for a film so outrageous, funny, deep, serious, visually arresting, and sexy – all at the same time.
International Feature Film:
Will Win – The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
Should Win – Zone or Perfect Days (Japan)
Animated Feature Film:
Will Win – The Boy and the Heron
Should Win – Heron, and so happy Nimona got nominated!
Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win – Oppenheimer
Should Win – American Fiction
Original Screenplay:
Will Win – Anatomy of a Fall
Should Win – Anatomy, or Past Lives
Visual Effects:
Will Win – The Creator
Should Win – Creator, because of its relative shoestring budget for Effects.
Original Score:
Will Win – Oppenheimer
Should Win – Poor Things
Original Song:
Will Win – I’m Just Ken from Barbie
Should Win – still I’m Just Ken
Documentary Film:
Will Win – 20 Days in Mariupol
Should Win – 20 Days
Cinematography:
Will Win – Oppenheimer
Should Win – Poor Things
Costume Design:
Will Win – Barbie
Should Win – Poor Things
Live Action Short Film:
Will Win – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Should Win – Henry Sugar
Film Editing:
Will Win – Anatomy of a Fall
Should Win – Anatomy
Sound :
Will Win – Oppenheimer
Should Win – Oppenheimer
Production Design:
Will Win – Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Win – Barbie
Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will Win – Maestro
Should Win – Society of the Snow
Just in case you’re wondering, I didn’t pick winners in the following categories: Animated Short Film and Documentary Short Film. I have not watched most of the nominated films, so I don’t feel qualified to cast judgment.
Let’s see how many I get right by March 11.
